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Risk Management and Business Strategy: Macro-Economic Factors Predictive of the Consumer Credit...
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Risk Management and Business Strategy: Macro-Economic Factors Predictive of the Consumer Credit Card Charge-Off Rate
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7060.pdf
Description
Rating
Title
Risk
Management
and
Business
Strategy
:
Macro-Economic
Factors
Predictive
of the
Consumer
Credit
Card
Charge-Off
Rate
Subject
Business
Strategy
,
Charge-Off
Rates
,
Credit
Cards
,
Credit
Risk
,
Economic
Indicators
,
Risk
Management
Description
United
States
(U.S.)
credit
card
issuers
attest
to the
fact
that the
economy
has
some
underlying
impact
on
credit
card
charge-off
rates
.
Understanding
this
economic
impact
can
lead
to
decisions
that are
more
effective
by
credit
card
issuers
regarding
risk
mitigation
and
business
strategy
.
However
, the
challenge
is
identifying
which
economic
indicators
,
covering
all
aspects
of the
economy
, have an
influence
on
consumer
credit
card
charge-off
rates
. With the
use
of
time-series
regression
, this
paper
presents
a
model
that
identifies
economic
variables
that have a
significant
relationship
with the
consumer
credit
card
charge-off
rate
.
Data
from the
first
quarter
of
1990
to the
fourth
quarter
of
2009
became
the
focus
when
modeling
the
consumer
credit
card
charge-off
rate
. The
expansion
of a
baseline
model
,
consisting
of
indicators
found
through
research
,
occurs
with the
addition
of
new
economic
variables
. The
expanded
econometric
model
found
six
economic
variables
to have a
significant
relationship
with the
consumer
credit
card
charge-off
rate
. These
variables
cover
four
major
aspects
of the
economy
:
consumption
,
production
,
financial
, and
housing
. To
understand
how the
economy
influences
the
credit
card
business
,
card
issuers
should
evaluate
all
aspects
of the
economic
system
that
measure
the
country's
economic
activity
.
Although
some
variables
showed
varying
levels
of
significance
in
favorable
and
unfavorable
economic
periods
, the
overall
model
was a
good
fit
.
Credit
card
companies
can
use
this
new
information
to
understand
the
economic
impact
and
make
effective
decisions
,
specifically
regarding
the
mitigation
of
future
credit
losses
and the
development
of
new
business
strategies
.
Creator
Pettiford
,
Keith
R
.
Publisher
UMI
Contributors
Durandetta
,
Donald
W
.
Date
2011
Format
PDF
Rights
Pettiford
,
Keith
R
.
LC Subject Headings
Financial risk management, Write-offs
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